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Southeast Asia may face biggest impact from US slowdown: IMF
 

Click here to view the large imageSoutheast Asia will face stiffer export competition from China and likely bear the brunt of any impact in Asia from a major economic slowdown in the United States, an IMF official said yesterday. A recession in the United States, anticipated by some economists as a result of a current housing slump and related credit crunch, will obviously lead to a cutback in exports by Asia's rapidly-growing economies, led by China. Based on a "rough rule of thumb," for about a one percentage point decline in US economic growth, there could be a "half to a full per cent decline in Asian growth, depending upon what the effects are beyond the United States," said Steven Dunaway, deputy director of the International Monetary Fund's Asia and Pacific department. "There will be much more of an impact in Southeast Asia," which faces direct competition from China in terms of a number of export products, he said. Dunaway said Asia's exporting nations were "going to be competing for a piece of a smaller pie" if US imports shrunk. He raised the possibility of China slashing prices to remain competitive. This would "affect profit margins and put some additional competitive pressure on Southeast Asian firms as well as firms in other countries competing with Chinese companies," he said. Labour-intensive manufacturing already appears to have given a competitive edge to China in trade and investments at the expense of export-driven Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines, economists say. Meanwhile, a "significant" slowing in the pace of 2008 global economic growth appears inevitable, the IMF said yesterday, also warning that restoring world financial markets was going to be a complex and protracted task. IMF spokesman, Masood Ahmed, said the US Federal Reserve's 75 basis point cut in the federal funds interest rate Tuesday -- the largest cut in the benchmark rate in more than 23 years-was "appropriate and helpful."

 
Post date: January 24, 2008
News source: The Financial Express
 
 
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